Who will win ICC Champions Trophy 2025?

The  ICC Champions Trophy 2025 is underway in Pakistan and UAE and will feature the top eight teams in the world in a tough and competitive format.

The million-dollar question then is – who will win? Is it the in-form Indian unit led by Rohit Sharma? Does Pakistan have the home-advantage? How much will Australia’s chances be hurt in the absence of the pace trio? What is wrong with England and who are the Dark Horses for the marquee event?

Let us examine.

India starts overwhelming favourites despite Bumrah’s absence

India are the number one ranked limited-overs team in world cricket – both in ODIs and T20 internationals! They put up a dominating performance in the last 50-over ICC tournament – the 2023 World Cup at home – till they ran into Australia in the final. They are also the current T20 World Cup champions.  India have won two major ODI bilateral series post the 2023 World Cup. They defeated South Africa 2-1 away and then hammered England 3-0 in an absolute thrashing at home in February.

India have the strongest batting unit in the world since the start of 2023. Their combined batting average of 38.28 and strike rate of 97.53 is the best in ODI cricket in this time-frame. No team has scored more individual hundreds than India’s 21 during this period and neither has any team crossed 350 as many times as India (10) since 2023.

Rohit Sharma may not be in great form in Test cricket but remains a powerhouse at the top of the order for India in ODI cricket – as he recently showcased with a masterclass hundred in a 300-plus chase against England in Cuttack. Kohli is still amongst the finest batters in the 50-over format while no batter has scored more runs in ODI cricket than Shubman Gill since 2022! Shreyas Iyer has returned with a bang and was in scintillating form in the series against England – he is a brilliant player of spin and will be key in the middle overs in Dubai. KL Rahul and Hardik Pandya will provide the impetus at the death.

Jasprit Bumrah’s injury is a massive blow for the team – he is the best fast bowler in international cricket and was in impeccable form in the two last ICC events. While India will miss him in crunch situations in the powerplay and death, there is still enough quality in their bowling department to cause trouble to the opposition.

Mohammed Shami may not have had the best of comebacks against England but his ODI strike rate of 25.7 is the best in ODI cricket history for a minimum of 150 wickets! If he gets on a roll, he has the potential to run through batting line-ups. Kuldeep Yadav has been in fine form since 2023 with 55 wickets in 34 innings at an average of 21.76 and economy of 4.51 and Varun Chakravarthy is at the peak of his prowess in white-ball cricket.

Home Advantage – Boon or Bane for Pakistan?

Pakistan has had a decent run in ODI cricket since 2023 winning 22 of the 37 matches they have played in this time-frame. They have won three big series in this period – they defeated New Zealand 4-1 at home before registering impressive away wins in Australia and South Africa.

Pakistan have a good record at home having won 13 of their 19 ODIs since 2021. Mohammad Rizwan (average of 63.4) and Babar Azam (45.2) will be key for Pakistan in the top-order. Fakhar Zaman (4 hundreds in last 22 innings) and Salman Agha (Pakistan’s highest scorer in tri-series in February) will be the other batters to watch out for. Saim Ayub’s unavailability due to injury will be a big blow for the home team – the opener has registered 3 hundreds in his last 9 matches.

Pakistan’s success, however, will depend on the pace trio of Shaheen Afridi, Haris Rauf and Naseem Shah. Afridi is the leading wicket-taker in ODIs since 2023 with 63 dismissals in just 30 matches while Rauf has been brilliant in the death overs with a strike rate of 13 and economy of 6.5 in this time-frame.

Pakistan’s home-advantage is a double-edged sword. They had a tough start to their campaign with their opener against New Zealand – who defeated them in the tri-series final last week.

An indifferent start will put enormous pressure on Pakistan and the home advantage may become a burden.

New Zealand - Dark Horse

New Zealand’s triumph in the tri-series in Pakistan would have given a significant boost to their chances at the Champions Trophy. Kane Williamson’s form – he scored 225 runs in the series with a hundred and a fifty – would be the biggest positive for New Zealand from the series. Glenn Phillips and Daryl Mitchell – both excellent players of spin – would be the two other batters to watch out for in Pakistan. Mitchell is the leading scorer for New Zealand in ODIs since 2023 with five tons in 30 innings at an average of close to 50 and strike rate of almost 100!

Matt Henry will lead the pace attack and has been New Zealand’s highest wicket-taker in the last couple of years with 39 dismissals in 24 matches at a little less than 25 apiece. Skipper, Mitchell Santner will be key in the middle overs and has also bagged 30 wickets at an economy of 4.76 since 2023.

New Zealand’s ability to raise their game in big ICC events and punch above their weight will make them the Dark Horse for the tournament. They have made the semi-final of the three previous 50-over World Cups and two of the last three T20 World Cups.

Winning their first match against Pakistan will give them every confidence to go all the way.

Absence of pace trio will hurt Australia, batting form also a worry

Australia are the holders of the last major 50-over tournament – they beat favourites India in the latter’s own backyard in Ahmedabad in the final of the 2023 World Cup in November, 2019. While they still boast of a formidable batting line-up on paper, their current form is a major cause of concern for Australia.

The batting line-up has completely collapsed in their last four ODIs – leading to series losses against Pakistan and Sri Lanka. Australia has failed to touch 170 even once in these four matches. Travis Head will be key for Australia at the top of the order. He is their highest impact batter since 2023 with 840 runs in 19 matches at an average of 52.5 and strike rate of 128.

The problem for Australia is that they do not have the fast bowling to cover for any dip in form of the batters. The world class trio of Pat Cummins, Mitchell Starc and Josh Hazlewood are not available for the tournament. This puts enormous pressure on their spin ace – Adam Zampa. The leg spinner has been in tremendous form in ODI cricket and is Australia’s leading wicket-taker since 2023 with 54 wickets in 32 matches at an average of 28.3. He was Australia’s highest wicket-taker of the 2023 World Cup.

England look at sea in the 50-over format

England have come a full 360-degrees in ODI cricket and are now exactly where they were after their early exit from the 2015 World Cup. They had a horrid 2023 World Cup finishing 7^th on the table and have been in poor form in 50-over cricket in the last couple of years. England have just won 14 and lost 20 of their last 35 matches and were thrashed 3-0 by India in their last bilateral series.

The batting is a major cause of concern for England. Barring Ben Duckett, none of their other batters average above 40 since 2023. It is almost as if England do not have a plan or strategy on how to approach and structure an innings across 50 overs. Brendon McCullum has taken over as full-time coach but his methods, which have brought them great success in Test cricket, might take a bit longer to bear fruit in limited overs cricket.

It is strange for England to stoop to this low in limited-overs cricket (they are also struggling in T20Is) given their historic triumph in the 2019 World Cup at home and then the T20 World Cup Down Under in 2022. They had mastered the art of white-ball cricket but suddenly it has all fallen apart for the Three Lions.

South Africa’s struggles post the World Cup

South Africa have had a tough run post the 2023 World Cup in India. They have lost 10 of their 14 matches which includes a home-series defeat at the hands of Afghanistan! They fared poorly in the recent tri-series in Pakistan losing to the hosts and New Zealand.

South Africa has big issues with their top and middle order with a combined average of just 28.21 in their last 14 matches. The bowling has not fared better either with an average of 34.95 placing them in the bottom cluster in this time-frame.

Prediction

India are likely to win all their matches and top Group A. Who will take the second spot?

Group B is slightly trickier with Australia, England and South Africa locked in together. Then there is Afghanistan too who has enough firepower to cause an upset or two and create havoc in the group. Given Australia’s ability to raise their game in big-tournaments, they should still qualify from Group B which means that the South Africa-England encounter could well be a shootout.

Who will win the ICC Champions Trophy 2025?........ New Zealand

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